English
statesman Charles Buxton had many famous quotes thorough his lifetime, one
being: “If we do what is necessary, all the odds are in our favor.” Buxton’s
words weren’t directed toward the game of poker, of course. But it’s sage advice
nonetheless.
Beyond the position, psychology, tells and luck of poker,
there’s also the odds. For many players who dread crunching numbers in their
head and aren’t math whizzes, figuring poker odds and probabilities can be the
least attractive part of the game. However, to become that well-rounded player,
adding the skills that will enable you to break down odds is a necessary evil.
Poker
odds deal with the likelihood of being dealt a particular hand, and what chance
that hand has of ending up being the winner. It’s the mathematical part of the
game that allows you to understand the probability of your hand being a favorite
or a long shot.
Knowing the math is like a long-term investment. The payoff
won’t come with each particular hand, but if you’re able to calculate the odds
over time, you’ll have the advantage. Like when you’re unable to read the tell
of an opponent or can’t put him or her on a particular hand, knowing the odds of
hitting your flush, straight or full house on the river is critical to the
development of your game.
Figuring odds is difficult. And it’s not because
you can’t come to the table with a calculator. It’s because you don’t ever know
exactly what the other players are holding. That’s where experience comes in.
The faster you learn how to put people on hands, the quicker your skills will
develop for figuring odds.
Where
the math comes into play the most at the poker table is when it’s time to
calculate “the outs.” The outs are the number of cards remaining in the deck
that will give you the hand you’re trying to achieve. At the same time, you’re
usually calculating the outs for a player you’re competing with as well. The
odds then result from comparing the number of unseen cards in the
deck.
For instance, in a game of Hold ’Em the community cards are
unsuited J-J-9-3 after the turn. You’re holding a pair of 10s which give you two
pair at this point in the hand. But you’ve put another player on holding a jack,
giving him trips. In this scenario, only a 10 will give you a victory with a
full house, and there’s two left in the deck. Therefore, you have two outs.
Since you’ve seen six cards (four community cards and your two), subtract six
from the amount of cards in a deck, 52, to come up with 46. The probability of
hitting your full house is two out of 46, or one in 23, making you a huge long
shot. When figuring outs, you have to use all of the unseen cards in the deck,
even though it’s possible that another player is holding or even folded that
10.
Using what is called pot odds is another case where math comes into
play. Pot odds are the size of the pot relative to the cost of calling the bets
necessary to remain in the hand. For example, if you have a flush draw of clubs
(four clubs), and there are a total of 13.
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